Ho chiesto to Lester Brown, one dei più importanti analisti dell'Ambiente, fondatore the Worldwatch Institute, and Definitory dal Washington Post: "One dei più influentia thinkers of the world "predictions about what lies ahead.
Here is his answer (worrying, Crikey!):
" While we are entering a new year, I reflect on how our global economy has come from the point Environmentally speaking, a threshold beyond which the Earth is not sustainable.
While all this has always been clear to ecologists, what is happening n China has also made it clear to economists.
China has far exceeded the U.S. in the consumption of a range of basic resources, such as wheat, meat, coal, steel with the exception of oil.
If the Chinese economy should continue to expand the rhythm of '8 per cent per annum, per capita income will reach the U.S. in 2031.
At that point the Chinese, who will be over one billion and four hundred and fifty million, consume resources like oil and paper in quantities far greater than the world is not producing at the moment.
You risk running out of oil and forests worldwide.
The western economic model - based on coal, petrol, car, waste - will not work in China.
And if you do not work for China it will not work in India, in 2031, will have a population even more important than China.
Nor will work for the other three billion people Developing countries that also link to the 'American Dream. "
This is particularly true for the economies of developed countries that they will have to act in an increasingly integrated world, where will also compete for the same oil, grain and steel.
The sustainability of economic development thus depends on the transition to an economic model based on renewable energy, recycling and reuse of materials as well as a diversified transport system.
"Business as usual - Plan A - can not lead us into the future to which we are bet.
It 's time for Plan B, and start building a new economy and a new world.
Plan B consists of three parts:
1. a restructuring of the global economy so as to enable the sustainability of our civilization
2. a gigantic effort to eradicate poverty, stabilize population growth
, restore hope
3. a huge effort to restore balance to the Earth system.
Examples of this new model can be seen on farms fed by wind power in Europe, Japanese in the roofs covered with solar panels, in the rapidly growing number of hybrid cars in the United States, in reforestation in South Korea, and in the streets dedicated to bicycles in Amsterdam. Virtually everything
che ci serve per il nuovo modello economic Costruire è stato fatto, or abbozzato, in one or Paesi più. Tutte queste
considerazioni approfondite e sono state nel mio nuovo discussed book "Plan B 2.0", che può essere Liberamente scaricato to www.earth-policy.org "Ernesto Schut
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